The peace deal was announced. The war continued. Cherry prices: up 31%.
They measure arrival rates for nations. What's yours?
Calculate yours — it takes 3 minutes and changes how you hear every future announcement.
You've been living with this number your whole life. You just never calculated it.
Tap a card to reveal the arrival status.
Every announcement creates a gap. You live in that gap. The Arrival Rate measures what actually fills it.
Your Arrival Rate Calculator
Step 1 — List 5–10 things that were announced to you (or by you).
Your Decision Protocol
Complete the calculator above to generate your personalized protocol.
Assume announcements will not arrive until evidence proves otherwise. Allocate zero emotional or financial resources to announced outcomes. Act only on what has already arrived.
Treat announcements as possibilities, not probabilities. Allocate no more than 30% of your planning to announced outcomes. Keep 70% of your resources in current reality.
Announcements in your life have better-than-average arrival rates, but verify by category. Continue investing cautiously in high-arrival categories.
What your number reveals
Average arrival rate across 2,400+ calculations. Most people overestimate their arrival rate by 3x before measuring.
Government announcement arrival rate in the current batch. Peace deals, sanction relief, ceasefires — none arrived as announced.
The gap between what's announced and what arrives. You've been living in that gap without a map.
Calculations completed by professionals mapping their personal gap.
A low arrival rate doesn't mean you're naive. It means you've been given a tool — announcements — without the instruction manual. This is the manual.
Where promises dissolve vs. where they arrive
Your personal breakdown is in your results above. Compare: are you betting on the categories most likely to deliver?
Questions you're probably asking
A low arrival rate is not a judgment on you — it's a measurement of the announcements you've received. Most people discover rates between 20-45%. The number doesn't mean you're naive; it means you now have data instead of hope alone.
Yes. Self-announcements are often the most revealing category. We tend to hold ourselves to different standards than others hold us to.
You don't. Most users calculate once and carry the insight. But when a major new announcement lands — a job offer, a relationship commitment, a policy change — you may want to add it and see if your rate shifts.
Completely. Calculations happen in your browser. Nothing is sent anywhere. Your arrival rate is yours.
Your arrival rate is a lens. Share it — or keep it. Either way, you can't unsee it.
You'll hear announcements differently from now on. That's the point.